This
is the hardest part for me. So far, I gave only observations, mainly in
technical form. Now I am expected to give textual interpretations.
I
think the first, most conspicuous feature of the global mean energy
flow system is the appearence of small integer ratios. Some
relationships between certain energy flow components seem
well-established: for example, the correlation between the net
radiation at the surface and half of the outgoing radiation in the
clear-sky is very well documented, both in the history of radiation
transfer theory, both in different observations.
A very specific
but easily demonstrable connection stands between the total radiative
energy absorrbed by the surface and twice the outgoing longwave
radiation, still in the clear-sky. This is a feature of the simplest
geometric greenhouse model, but surprisingly accurate in the
observations.
The all-sky versions of this pair of clear-sky
equations is easily generated, by separating atmospheric transfer of
radiation from the longwave effect of clouds; thus, LWCRE appears in
these equations.
The two all-sky equations are satisfied by a
difference of 0.1 Wm-2 on the global energy and water cycle assessments
of NEWS and GEWEX, and the four equations together verified by 22 years
of observations in the NASA CERES datasets within an unimaginably small
difference of 0.0007 Wm-2.
These relationships are more or less reasonable — contrary to their
surprising consequence of the integer ratio system.
But
the fact that the unit flux (the building block, or the pacer, or
pace-maker of the energy flow system) is LWCRE, and that it equals 1/51
of the total solar irradiance, is mind-blowing.
But
the other, very accurately verified fact that both in observations and
in the climate models, solar reflection at the top of the atmosphere,
both in clear-sky and all-sky, occupies integer position (8 units and
15 units on the intercepting cross-section disk to incoming
solar
radiation, thus 2 units and 15/4 units after spherical weighting by a
factor of 4), without any reference to surface reflective properties,
or to cloudy reflective properties or to atmospheric aerosols, is so
implausible that I wouldn't dare to mention them if they were not soo
accurately verified in the datasets (53.36 Wm-2 in the integer ratio
system, 53 Wm-2 in every model in the clear-sky, and 100.05
Wm-2
in the arithmetic ratio system, and 100 Wm-2 in the several IPCC data
sources; similar to solar absorbed in the atmosphere: 73.37 and 80.04
Wm-2 in the clear-and all-integer system, 73 and 80 Wm-2 in the
observations and models). — But, after all, science is not about
plausibility but
validity, isn't it?
These recognitions certainly point beyond
our current understanding of solar reflection in Earth's physical
system, and calls for some kind of new physical theory, a total
determination with quantized energy flows in the annual global
planetary mean. Within this context, understanding of our observed
climatic processes: fluctuations around, or permanent (systematic)
changes and deviations from the integer positions, and their causes, is
more urgent than ever.
A
physics tutor at a History and Philosophy of Science course at the
university told: "The physics of the 21st century will be as novel and
incomprehensible compared to the physics of the 20th century as it was
novel and incomprehensible compared to the classical physics of the
19th century."
Welcome in the 21st century?