Expectations


In this chapter we collect some institutions whose word is definitive in handling scientific results, and mention the corresponding scholars whose work define the science itself.


IPCC should acknowledge that their Fifth Assessment Report (2013) Coordinating Lead Author's updated energy flow diagram (2016) reproduces the theoretical all-sky greenhouse factor of g = 0.4 as 0.3965, the net equation is valid with a difference of 1.5 Wm-2, and the total equation is exact (zero difference):



IPCC should also acknowledge that their AR6 (2021) verifies the theoretical expectation about the all-sky greenhouse factor exactly, without any deviation or enhancement (IPCC AR6 WGI, Fig. 7.2):

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GFDL should acknowledge that their Atmospheric Model 4 reproduces the theoretical, GHG-independent geometric clear-sky greenhouse effect with zero difference:


Inamdar and Ramanathan (1996) "On monitoring atmospheric greenhouse effect from space" say: "Two measures are used to quantify the magnitude of the atmospheric greenhouse effect: Ga and Ga*. Ga is the reduction of OLR due to the presence of the atmosphere and Ga* is the downward longwave radiation at the surface." Notice that Ga at the most recent 22-year CERES EBAF Edition 4.1 dataset is 158.5 Wm-2 in the all-sky, while its theoretical integer position is at 6 units = 160.08 Wm-2; and Ga*, that is, downward longwave, is 345.01 Wm-2 in the all-sky, with its integer position at 13 units = 346.84 Wm-2. The paper says: "The difference, Ga – Ga* yields the net radiative cooling of the atmospheric column."  In the CERES data, Ga – Ga* = -186.5 Wm-2, while its integer position is -7 units = -186.76 Wm-2.  We expect the science research community to acknowledge that their observed data prove: there is no enhancement in the greenhouse effect and no deviation in Atmosphere LW cooling.


BAMS State of the Climate in 2020 (August 21, 2021) should acknowledge that their global TOA fluxes (Earth radiation budget, p.80) fit to the theoretical expectations in the magnitude of interannual variability:



BAMS should also acknowledge that their global energy flow estimate (The First 30 Years of GEWEX, Stephens et al. 2023) satisfies the two all-sky equations with a difference of 0.09 and 0.12 Wm-2 and their energy flows are consistent to the theoretical which is resulted from the simplest geometric model without reference to the gaseous composition of the atmosphere. This diagram, with the equations and the integer solution, should form the basis of the next IPCC report.



NASA should acknowledge that one of the main achievements of their 22-year CERES satellite mission is the exact verification of the four geometric radiative transfer constraint equations in their completed, archived CERES_EBAF_Edition 4.1 dataset (264 monthly means from April 2000 through March 2022) (mean bias = 0.0007 Wm-2):



UN should finally recognize that global boiling is not greenhouse boiling. 


A professor of History and Philosophy of Science once said: The science of the 21st century will be as strange and unexpected compared to that of the relativity and quantum theory of the 20th century as it was compared to the classical physics of the 19th century.
The science of Earth's energy flows today is in the hands of the same eleven scientists as it was twenty years ago: Graeme, Kevin, Greg, Bjorn, Norman, Seiji, Paul, Bruce, Dennis, Tristan, Martin. Its time to arrive into the 21st century.



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