... asks Kevin Trenberth's new book (2022)
Cambridge University Press, 2022
... and the answer is two plates in space, with sunlight shining on the first at a rate of 240 Wm-2.
Reflection is already accounted. Then double incoming solar to 480 Wm-2.
First start with one plate only, see panel 1.
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It radiates on both sides equally 240 Wm-2:
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Then insert a second, "green" plate (for greenhouse gases)
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The green plate receives energy only from the first plate, and radiates again on both sides.
The total emission of the system would be 240 + 120 = 360, less than the incoming 480, therefore the system must heat up; this is the greenhouse effect.
The final state will be:
The warming caused by the presence of the second plate is 80 Wm-2.
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The corresponding equalities:
The ratios:
G : (σT24) : (σTeq4) : (σT14) : SOLAR =
80 : 160 : 240 : 320 : 480.
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Let's write Trenberth's equations:
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His geometry does not have a surface, energy leaves both directions.
For Earth-like application, a surface should be introduced,
and the atmosphere be shortwave-transparent, with Sun on the outer side:
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Here is Trenberth's greenhouse geometry:
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Let's write down the corresponding equalities:
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Introduce convection into the place of net radiation:
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This model has a greenhouse factor of 1/3.
This is pure geometry, a direct feature of the model.
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Check it on CERES EBAF data:
g = (398.40 - 265.59)/398.40 = 0.33336
This is indiscernible from 1/3, in any data accuracy.
Evidently, the corresponding ULW/OLR = 3/2 ratio is exactly satisfied.
In the model, no greenhouse gases were taken into account.
Earth follows the simplest radiative logic, where the geometry defines the energy flow system.
The role of lapse rate and the atmospheric amount of greenhouse gases (water vapor)
is to maintan the "plate state".
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Trenberth's equations are evidently satisfied by the geometry:
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From here, Earth's energy flow system comes with the simple deduction:
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This is the crutial step:
If it is true that solar reflection at the TOA can be related to the incoming solar radiation with an elementary small integer ratio, without any reference to surface reflective properties or atmospheric molucular reflective properties,
this would point to a new, "geometric" physics, beyond the ruling theory.
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It seems the final result verifies the assumption:
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No reference to atmospheric gaseous composition or lapse rate were made.
This geometry is accurately realized in the energy flow diagram of The First 30 Years of GEWEX study (BAMS, 2023).
See next page "GEWEX" or go back to the main "index" page.